Temporal and demographic trends in cardiogenic shock and chronic ischemic heart disease-related mortality among U.S adults aged 45 years and older: a 25 year nationwide analysis with ARIMA forecasting

Cardiogenic shock (CS) and chronic ischemic heart disease (CIHD) remain major contributors to cardiovascular mortality in the United States. Although mortality related to ischemic disease declined in the early 2000s, recent trends suggest a resurgence. This population-based study utilized the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Wide-Ranging OnLine Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database from 1999 to 2023. Deaths were identified using ICD-10 codes R57.0 (CS) and I25 (CIHD). Adults aged ≥ 45 years were included. Crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated, with temporal changes assessed using Joinpoint regression to estimate Annual Percent Change (APC) and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). Between 1999 and 2023, deaths attributed to CS and CIHD accounted for 78,903 cases among adults ≥ 45 years. Overall AAMR ranged from 35.88 per million in 1999 to 37.44 per million in 2023, with a downward trend from 1999 to 2012 followed by an upward trend thereafter. Males (51,080 deaths) exhibited rising mortality (AAPC: +0.50, p < 0.001), while females (27,823 deaths) showed a decline (AAPC: − 0.91, p < 0.0004). Non-Hispanic Black adults demonstrated the steepest increase (AAPC: +1.85, p < 0.001). The burden was greatest in adults ≥ 65 years, but the 45–64 group showed the fastest rise (AAPC: +1.67, p < 0.001). Mortality from cardiogenic shock and chronic ischemic heart disease among U.S. adults ≥ 45 years declined initially but reversed after 2012. Rising mortality in middle-aged adults, persistent racial disparities, and geographic inequities highlight urgent gaps in prevention and acute care.