Adaptive Decarbonization Model for Russian Non-Ferrous Metallurgy Enterprises

This paper proposes an adaptive decarbonization model for the Russian non-ferrous metallurgy sector. The model accounts for the specific structure of the national energy balance (with nuclear and hydropower accounting for up to 40%), existing technological constraints, and regulatory risks, including the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Based on a comparative analysis of key companies (RUSAL, Norilsk Nickel, and UMMC), an algorithm for the sequential assessment of decarbonization priorities is developed. Its core element is an integrated urgency indicator, which enables the ranking of enterprises according to their sensitivity to carbon-related restrictions. The model aims to minimize potential financial losses arising from external carbon taxation while leveraging the structural competitive advantages of the Russian energy system. The priority in decarbonization in Russia is determined not by the absolute level of technological development or the current carbon intensity of production, but by the degree of exposure to external regulatory and market risks combined with the ability to adapt. It is proven that in the current geopolitical and economic realities, the successful decarbonization of Russian non-ferrous metallurgy is impossible either as exclusively technological modernization or as a passive reaction to external regulatory pressure. The findings indicate that directly adopting international decarbonization strategies developed for the EU and North America (such as the EU Green Deal and CBAM) is ineffective due to fundamental differences in raw material bases, climatic conditions, and logistics.