Continuing industrial emissions are delaying the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has greatly restricted the global production and consumption of long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODS). However, ODS used or consumed as feedstocks in the manufacture of other chemicals are excluded from restrictions. This exclusion was based on the assumption that emission rates of feedstocks were only 0.5% of the amount produced and that feedstock production would decline in the future, with remaining emissions too small to significantly affect the stratospheric ozone or its recovery. In sharp contrast, feedstock emissions are now assessed as being substantially higher (typically 3.6% of production), and feedstock production and use has been rising rather than falling. Here, scenarios in which feedstock-related ODS emissions continue at this current fraction of production, rather than the 0.5% reference case, are projected until 2100. Without additional measures, these elevated emissions could delay the recovery of the mid-latitude stratospheric ozone layer by 7 (6 - 11) years. Furthermore, limiting ODS feedstock emissions would also reduce their effect on direct radiative forcing and on climate change.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-04-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70533-w
Primary Topic
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Continuing industrial emissions are delaying the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

Susan Solomon, Luke M. Western, J. S. Daniel, David Sherry et al.
Nature Communications
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
article

Continuing industrial emissions are delaying the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

Susan Solomon, Luke M. Western, J. S. Daniel, David Sherry, S Park, Stefan Reimann, L. J. M. Kuijpers, Martin K. Vollmer, Megan Lickley, Guus J. M. Velders, Lukas Emmenegger, Matthew Rigby, S. A. Montzka, Qing Liang
article en

Abstract

The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer has greatly restricted the global production and consumption of long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODS). However, ODS used or consumed as feedstocks in the manufacture of other chemicals are excluded from restrictions. This exclusion was based on the assumption that emission rates of feedstocks were only 0.5% of the amount produced and that feedstock production would decline in the future, with remaining emissions too small to significantly affect the stratospheric ozone or its recovery. In sharp contrast, feedstock emissions are now assessed as being substantially higher (typically 3.6% of production), and feedstock production and use has been rising rather than falling. Here, scenarios in which feedstock-related ODS emissions continue at this current fraction of production, rather than the 0.5% reference case, are projected until 2100. Without additional measures, these elevated emissions could delay the recovery of the mid-latitude stratospheric ozone layer by 7 (6 - 11) years. Furthermore, limiting ODS feedstock emissions would also reduce their effect on direct radiative forcing and on climate change.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 17(1)
Goddard Space Flight Center (US), Walsh University (US), Georgetown University (US), Utrecht University (NL), Kyungpook National University (KR), University of Bristol (GB), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (NL), Qiagen (Netherlands) (NL), NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US), Nolan Associates (United Kingdom) (GB), Institute for Sustainability (GB), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US), Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (CH)
National Science Foundation, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Kyungpook National University, Korea Meteorological Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Natural Environment Research Council, Bundesamt für Umwelt
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 15%
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.