Air Quality and Climate Co-Benefits of Pakistan’s Transport Sector: A Multi-Pollutant Scenario Assessment

The transport sector is a major contributor to urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan, posing significant challenges to sustainable development and climate commitments. This study develops the first technology-resolved, high-resolution, multi-pollutant emission inventory and scenario analysis for Pakistan’s transport sector, addressing key gaps in previous studies that lacked integrated multi-pollutant assessments, comprehensive coverage of non-road sources, and long-term scenario comparisons. The analysis integrates road and non-road transport sources within the Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) modeling framework. Emissions are projected for 2024–2050 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three mitigation pathways: an Electric Vehicle Transition (EVT) emphasizing transport electrification, a Euro-VI scenario focusing on stringent fuel and vehicle emission standards, and an integrated nationally determined contribution strategy (NDC+) scenario combining electrification, regulatory improvements, and structural transport reforms. In 2024, transport-related emissions are estimated at approximately 22 kt of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), over 300 kt of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and nearly 39 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO2), alongside substantial emissions of other gaseous pollutants and short-lived climate forcers. By 2050, the NDC+ scenario achieves the largest reductions relative to business-as-usual, demonstrating that coordinated electrification and emission control strategies can simultaneously reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. The results demonstrate strong synergies between climate mitigation and air quality improvement, showing that integrated strategies combining electrification with stringent emission standards can simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas emissions and major air pollutants while advancing cleaner and more sustainable mobility. This analysis provides a consistent and policy-relevant evidence base derived from best-available data and modeling tools to support Pakistan’s NDC implementation, sustainable mobility planning, and integrated air quality and climate strategies, with lessons transferable to other rapidly developing economies.