Factors influencing the modal shift from motorised to active commuting among university populations

• Active transport has potential well-being benefits and should be stimulated. • We identify a number of barriers for motorised users to switch to active modes. • Reinforcing behavior change through the dynamics of the student-peer effect is one lever. • Promoting 30-minute cities to reduce commuting distances is another. • Policies enhancing cycling infrastructure and financial incentives can accelerate the shift. In a context of the transition to more sustainable cities and related public policy development, this study aims to analyse the willingness of current motorised commuters to switch to active modes of transport (walking, cycling) and the factors influencing this transition decision. We use data from the 12,000 respondents of our MobiCampus-UdL university community survey (2017–2019), conducted in 17 academic institutions in Lyon (France). We estimate a probit model with sample selection, explaining both the probability of using a motorised mode to usually get to campus and the propensity of these motorised commuters to switch to active modes. Our results show that 31% of students and 27.5% of employees who use a motorised mode would be willing to switch to an active mode. We identify a number of barriers to change, such as the distance between home and campus, limited access to cycling infrastructure or a bike-share service, and the entrenched habits of young private car drivers. Most importantly, our results suggest that targeted policies, especially regarding cycling infrastructure and financial incentives, could accelerate the shift to active commuting. The presence of peer effects also seems to be a relevant lever to promote these practices, especially among students whose mobility habits influence their future behaviour.