An empirical study of the socio-economic determinants of poverty in post-Soviet Central Asia: a panel data analysis

Abstract The present study attempts to investigate the impact of various socio-economic determinants on poverty incidence in the context of post-Soviet Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan—during the 1991 to 2022 time period. The feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) method is used to estimate the influence of various explanatory variables on the incidence of poverty. The study found that poverty in Central Asia is significantly influenced by economic growth, income inequality, unemployment, and health outcomes such as infant mortality rate. While economic growth helps to reduce poverty, its benefits are conditional on equitable distribution of income. The findings of the present study highlight the need for robust social protection systems and investments in the healthcare system. Policies targeting labor market outcomes, income distribution, and health infrastructure are essential for poverty eradication. Though education and trade openness show less direct impact, they remain important for long-term sustainable development of the Central Asian region. The study offers several policy recommendations to address the incidence of poverty across the region.