Spatiotemporal Analysis and Multi-Scenario Projection of Soil Erosion in the Loess Plateau Using the PLUS-CSLE Model

Soil erosion remains a critical ecological challenge on China’s Loess Plateau (LP), where fragile geomorphology and intensive human activities jointly amplify land degradation risks. As land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) is a primary determinant of erosion processes, clarifying the nexus between land patterns and erosion intensity is essential for formulating effective conservation strategies. This study integrates the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) with the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil erosion from 2000 to 2020 and project future patterns for 2060 under five scenarios: Natural Development (ND), Ecological Protection (EP), Economic Development (ED), Cropland Protection (CP), and Planning Guidance (PG). Results indicate a fluctuating decline in LP soil erosion during 2000–2020, marked by a transition toward predominantly slight erosion (~70% of the total area), while high-intensity erosion remained concentrated in central and western cropland and grassland. Scenario projections reveal pronounced divergence in erosion outcomes. The EP scenario, characterized by sustained vegetation expansion, demonstrated the highest efficacy in erosion mitigation. Conversely, the ED scenario exhibited the most severe erosion risk due to urban expansion into ecological areas. The PG scenario effectively reconciled the trade-offs between ecological conservation and socioeconomic demands, maintaining a balanced erosion control performance. In the context of global climate change, the complexity of soil and water conservation governance is expected to intensify. This study suggests that future efforts should focus on scientifically guiding the evolution of land-use patterns through sustainable spatial planning. Furthermore, targeted engineering and biological conservation measures must bae implemented for high-risk land categories to ensure the long-term stability of the regional ecological security barrier.