Spatiotemporal Variations of Summertime Compound Hot and Dry Events in China and the Associated Atmospheric Circulations Using Daily Threshold Indices

ABSTRACT Under global warming, compound hot‐dry events (CHDEs) pose increasing threats across China. This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of summer CHDEs and their monthly atmospheric drivers using two independent datasets (CN05.1 and satellite‐based) during 1979–2022. A daily‐scale Compound Hot‐Dry Index (CHDI) is developed to identify co‐occurring high‐temperature and low‐precipitation extremes. Results show that the climatological frequency of CHDEs is highest in Northwest China, while the most pronounced increasing trends are found in Southwest China. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly CHDI fields reveals a coherent monthly shift in the dominant mode of variability: the primary centre of action migrates from Northwest China in June to Northern China in July, and finally to the Yangtze River Valley in August. Dynamical diagnosis indicates this progression is governed by distinct teleconnection patterns. The June pattern is driven by a Rossby wave train associated with the silk road pattern (SRP), which establishes an equivalent‐barotropic Central Asian ridge, inducing subsidence and blocking moisture to favour CHDEs in the northwest. In July, the dominant mode is linked to the Polar‐Eurasian (POL) pattern, sustaining a Baikal High that promotes heating over Northern China while anomalous easterlies impede Pacific moisture transport. By August, an intensified and westward‐extended western Pacific subtropical high becomes the key driver, causing subsidence and disrupting the monsoon flow to trigger CHDEs in the Yangtze River Valley. These findings highlight a robust monthly progression in CHDE dynamics, offering a process‐based framework for understanding compound extremes in a warming climate.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Climatology
Published
2026-04-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70377
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Spatiotemporal Variations of Summertime Compound Hot and Dry Events in China and the Associated Atmospheric Circulations Using Daily Threshold Indices

Yi Fan, Jiani Zeng, Anqin Tan, Botao Zhou et al.
International Journal of Climatology
Climate variability and models
article

Spatiotemporal Variations of Summertime Compound Hot and Dry Events in China and the Associated Atmospheric Circulations Using Daily Threshold Indices

Yi Fan, Jiani Zeng, Anqin Tan, Botao Zhou, Yuan Yuan, Huixin Li, Qiuxiao Zhu
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Under global warming, compound hot‐dry events (CHDEs) pose increasing threats across China. This study investigates the spatiotemporal characteristics of summer CHDEs and their monthly atmospheric drivers using two independent datasets (CN05.1 and satellite‐based) during 1979–2022. A daily‐scale Compound Hot‐Dry Index (CHDI) is developed to identify co‐occurring high‐temperature and low‐precipitation extremes. Results show that the climatological frequency of CHDEs is highest in Northwest China, while the most pronounced increasing trends are found in Southwest China. Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly CHDI fields reveals a coherent monthly shift in the dominant mode of variability: the primary centre of action migrates from Northwest China in June to Northern China in July, and finally to the Yangtze River Valley in August. Dynamical diagnosis indicates this progression is governed by distinct teleconnection patterns. The June pattern is driven by a Rossby wave train associated with the silk road pattern (SRP), which establishes an equivalent‐barotropic Central Asian ridge, inducing subsidence and blocking moisture to favour CHDEs in the northwest. In July, the dominant mode is linked to the Polar‐Eurasian (POL) pattern, sustaining a Baikal High that promotes heating over Northern China while anomalous easterlies impede Pacific moisture transport. By August, an intensified and westward‐extended western Pacific subtropical high becomes the key driver, causing subsidence and disrupting the monsoon flow to trigger CHDEs in the Yangtze River Valley. These findings highlight a robust monthly progression in CHDE dynamics, offering a process‐based framework for understanding compound extremes in a warming climate.

International Journal of Climatology
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Climate variability and models
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