Future trends and driving factors of ozone pollution in China under the carbon neutrality target using an ensemble machine learning approach

= 0.83), projections for 2060 (relative to 2020) show that the national average ozone will decrease by 1.9 ppbv, 2.7 ppbv, and 4.0 ppbv under SSP2-4.5-ECP, SSP5-8.5-BHE, and SSP1-2.6-BHE scenario, respectively. Emission-driven ozone (EDO) decreases dominate the national trend, with reductions up to 5.8 ppbv by 2060. In contrast, climate-driven ozone (CDO) shows a sharp north-south contrast: southern China experiences increase of 5.8-8.4 ppbv due to enhanced solar radiation and lower humidity, whereas northern China sees decreases of -1.2 to -2.6 ppbv by 2060. Our ensemble multi-model analysis reveals a sharply divergent ozone future across China, demanding region-specific strategies to address the climate penalty effect.