Assessment of the Robustness and Resilience of the Water System in the Bogotá River Basin

Human activities and climate change increasingly affect the dynamics of rivers and reservoirs, heightening the risks of floods and water shortages. Ensuring that water systems remain functional during extreme floods and shortages is central to risk reduction and water security. In the Bogotá River Basin, the performance of hydric infrastructure and operating rules under severe droughts and floods remains insufficiently understood. Here, we assessed the robustness and resilience of the Bogotá River Basin’s hydric infrastructure under extreme climate scenarios. Focusing on minimizing flood areas and meeting water demand, we developed a multi-objective linear programming model that integrates the operation of reservoirs, sub-basins, and monitoring stations. Using metrics such as average flood duration, reservoir utilization and water-supply reliability, we quantified system performance and identified hydrological units and stations where risks concentrate. The analysis reveals trade-offs between reducing flooded areas and maintaining water demand fulfillment and shows how targeted changes in operating rules and transfer capacity could enhance robustness and resilience. The evidence supports local environmental and water management institutions in designing operational protocols and contingency plans. It also illustrates how robustness and resilience metrics derived from optimization models can support decision making for climate adaptation and water security planning in similar basins.