The potential effects of heat extremes on educational outcomes of children in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

Abstract Heat extremes related to climate change increase the exposure of children to non-optimal learning environments, which may threaten children’s educational achievement and a country’s sustainable development, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This is a systematic review of quantitative evidence on the potential effects of extreme heat on the educational outcomes of children in LMICs and on the potential causal pathways of such effects. The review is guided by a pre-specified registered protocol (ID: PROCEED-24-00313). We systematically searched electronic databases up to 23 September 2024 (no date limits), supplemented by open searching, reference mining, hand searching and articles from content experts. We critically appraised studies for risk of bias. The heterogeneity of the studies precluded a pooled estimate of effect. We present a narrative synthesis of the effects of heat extremes on educational outcomes, and we include modifying factors and causal pathways of these effects. Negative effects of heat were reported for academic performance in both mathematics and verbal test scores, with mixed effects for high-stakes university entrance examinations. Heat had potential negative effects on school completion and attendance. Mediating factors included gender, education and socio-economic level, urban/rural location and building characteristics. Potential causal pathways included the direct effects on a learner’s learning ability through physiological and cognitive stress, and the indirect effects on access to education via the loss of livelihoods, especially in poorer agrarian communities. There is evidence of potential negative effects of heat on academic performance in particular, although the range in the effect size and mediating factors highlight the complexity of the relationship between extreme heat and educational outcomes. Policies may be needed for the provision of climate-resilient education infrastructure and learning systems, and for social safety nets to attenuate economic vulnerability. More evidence is needed, especially on what multiple dimensions are needed for climate-resilient adaptation.