Have non-EU countries become more involved in the UK’s value-added trade? An input–output analysis following the EU referendum

This study examines changes in the UK’s global value chain (GVC) participation following the EU referendum, using the Asian Development Bank’s multiregional input–output (ADB MRIO) tables for 2000–2023 to trace direct and indirect value-added flows at national and industry levels. Three key findings emerge. First, the UK’s dependence on domestic value added in exports remained consistently high. Second, while value-added trade with non-EU countries—particularly Switzerland, China, India, and the US—increased after the referendum, the EU’s share in UK value-added exports stabilized or rose slightly, and reliance on EU value-added imports remained high. Third, indirect value-added trade through third countries has gradually increased since formal EU withdrawal. Despite post-Brexit adjustments and growing diversification, the EU remains a central partner in the UK’s value-added trading activities.