Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Based on the Markov-FLUS Model: A Case Study of the Hexi Corridor

As a major ecological safeguard in northwestern China and an important corridor for the Belt and Road Initiative, the Hexi Corridor holds strategic significance for improving landscape structure and enhancing regional ecological security. Focusing on the Hexi Corridor, this study develops a landscape ecological risk (LER) index based on land use (LU) data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. The study employs ArcGIS spatial analysis and XGBoost-SHAP, an interpretable machine learning method, to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of LU and LERs, as well as their driving factors. Furthermore, the Markov-FLUS model is utilized to simulate and predict LU and LER spatial patterns under multiple scenarios for 2030. The results show that: (1) The dominant land type in the Hexi Corridor is unused land, accounting for 67.33%. During the research period, the extents of unused land, grassland, and forestland showed a steady decline, while built-up land and cropland increased. (2) LERs are categorized into five types, with high risk being the most prevalent, accounting for 52.02%. Between 2000 and 2020, the total area of higher and high risks decreased by 4312 km2, indicating an overall decrease in LER across the region. (3) LER is primarily influenced by annual rainfall, population density, distance to main roads, and distance to rivers. (4) Marked variations in LU patterns and LER are observed across different development scenarios projected for 2030.