Model Predictive Control of Energy Storage System for Suppressing Bus Voltage Fluctuation in PV–Storage DC Microgrid

Ensuring DC bus voltage stability is a key enabler for the sustainable development of photovoltaic-storage DC microgrids (PV–storage DC MGs), which are regarded as critical infrastructure for high-penetration renewable energy utilization. However, the inherent randomness of PV power generation seriously threatens this stability. This paper proposes a novel model predictive control (MPC) scheme for the energy storage system (ESS) to mitigate voltage fluctuations and enhance system stability. To improve the model precision, a forgetting-factor-augmented recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm is employed for online identification and correction of the estimated equivalent impedance between the ESS and the DC bus. Rigorous Lyapunov stability analysis is performed to obtain the sufficient stability conditions and quantitative tuning rules for the weighting coefficients, which transforms the qualitative parameter selection into a theoretical constrained optimization. The state of charge (SOC) of the ESS is set as a security constraint to avoid excessive charge/discharge and extend battery service life. A distinguished advantage of the proposed strategy is that it generates ESS power commands solely based on local measurements, eliminating the dependence on external communication and improving system reliability. Simulation results on MATLAB R2021b/Simulink and hardware-in-the-loop experiments based on RT-Lab and DSP demonstrate that the proposed MPC method significantly reduces the DC bus voltage deviation, accelerates the dynamic recovery process, and maintains stable ESS operation under both normal PV fluctuations and sudden PV outage conditions.