Predictors of Cirrhosis and Cholangiocarcinoma in Patients with Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: An Academic Center Experience

Background and goals: The outcomes of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) in central Missouri are unknown. The University of Missouri–Columbia services 600,000 individuals in central Missouri. Our aims were (a) to examine the outcomes of PSC patients receiving care at our academic institution, and (b) to identify the predictors of PSC-related serious adverse events. Methods: A retrospective study of patients with PSC in a non-transplant center. The primary outcome was the development of ≥1 of PSC-related serious adverse event for (1) progression to cirrhosis, or (2) development of cholangiocarcinoma. Results: From 2000 to 2018, 42 patients fulfilled the criteria for the diagnosis of PSC. A total of 55% of the patients were male, and 79% had associated inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The median follow-up from time of diagnosis of PSC until the last follow-up or death was 5.5 years. A total of 57% of the patients developed ≥ 1 PSC-related adverse event; 36% (8/22) of those who progressed to decompensation underwent liver transplantation. The median time from diagnosis of PSC until progression to decompensation was 6.3 years; the median time from decompensation to transplantation was 10.8 years. A total of 12% of the patients developed ≥ 1 cancer (cholangiocarcinoma = 2; gallbladder cancer = 2; colon cancer = 1; and hepatocellular carcinoma = 1). The overall mortality was 9.5%. The median time from PSC diagnosis until death was 10.2 years. A Cox hazards regression analysis showed only age (HR = 1.16; p = 0.032; 95% CI, 1.01–1.13) and serum bilirubin (HR = 1.42; p = 0.036; 95% CI, 1.03–2.69) at the time of PSC diagnosis were independently associated with PSC-related serious events. Conclusions: Age and bilirubin are important predictors of PSC-related outcomes.