Spatio-temporal profiling of coastal hazard / vulnerability assessment along the Gujarat coast, India, over a period of 35 years

Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and fragile, facing increasing threats from climate-induced changes, sea-level rise, extreme wave action, vegetation loss, and diverse human activities. These factors create immense pressure on fragile ecosystems and species richness and accelerate shoreline degradation and erosion. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of coastal vulnerability along the Gujarat which is longest coastline in India, using a multi-parameter Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). The analysis incorporated nine existing key variables, including shoreline change rate, sea level change, geomorphology, tidal range, elevation, slope, significant wave height, land use/land cover (LULC), and population density. These datasets are derived from satellite imagery, tide gauge data, stationed data, and socio-economic datasets. Results indicate that marked spatial variability in vulnerability: while 60% of Gujarat’s coastline falls under low to very low risk categories, approximately 15% is classified as very high vulnerability, concentrated in central districts such as Bhavnagar, Anand, and Morbi. Conversely, the north-western (Kachchh, Devbhumi Dwarka) and southern (Porbandar, Gir Somnath) stretches demonstrate greater resilience, aided by extensive mudflats, mangroves, and stable geomorphic features. Comparative shoreline changes analysis (1990–2025) revealed a reversal of earlier erosive trends, with 61% of transects now exhibiting accretion. Elevation, slope, and sea level rise emerged as the most influential drivers of vulnerability, while socio-economic factors (LULC and population density) amplified exposure in hazard-prone zones. This integrated CVI approach provides the most spatially detailed vulnerability mapping of the Gujarat coast to date, offering critical insights for policy and decision makers which help in climate adaptation, sustainable coastal zone management, and disaster resilience planning in this area.