Factors shaping the siting of utility-scale solar and wind projects in the United States

Abstract The location of a wind or solar project is one of the most consequential decisions a renewable energy developer can make when planning a new project, as it shapes numerous aspects of project economics and local impacts on ecosystems and host communities. This study examines key factors influencing the siting of utility-scale solar and wind projects in the contiguous United States using multiple statistical and machine learning models and a robust sampling approach. We find that while proximity to transmission lines or substations and existing projects is critical for both technologies, solar locations are more flexible and are shaped by a greater diversity of factors including higher population density, greater road accessibility, and lower ecological impact. In contrast, wind locations are primarily driven by wind resource quality and agricultural land use. There are notable regional nuances in these national trends, with some variables like population density having greater effects in the Midwest. While individual models emphasize different predictors and regional patterns, the ensemble reveals consistent tendencies that increase confidence in interpretation. Lastly, the probabilities of wind and solar being sited in disadvantaged (DAC) and non-DAC areas vary across regions, suggesting that the Midwest and Northeast in particular may see disproportionately less development pressure from solar and wind projects in disadvantaged community census tracts.