Cash Crop Production and Household Food Security Among Smallholder Subsistence Farmers in Lower Shabelle, Somalia: Evidence from a Household Survey

Agriculture remains the primary livelihood for rural households in Somalia, yet food insecurity persists due to recurrent droughts, conflict, and weak institutional support, raising important questions about whether cash crop production can meaningfully improve household resilience and food security under subsistence farming systems. This study examines the relationship between cash crop production and household food security among smallholder subsistence farmers in Afgoye District, Lower Shabelle, Somalia. In fragile agricultural systems, farmers often face trade-offs between producing food for household consumption and cultivating cash crops for income. Understanding how these decisions affect food security is critical for policy and development interventions. Primary data were collected from 60 farming households using a structured survey conducted between July 2018 and March 2019. The study employed descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests, binary logistic regression, and Spearman correlation analysis to assess the association between income sources, farmers’ perceptions, and food deficit status. The results show that 58.3% of households experienced food deficit, indicating widespread food insecurity. Chi-square tests revealed no significant association between income sources and food deficit (e.g., maize/sorghum sale: χ² = 2.336, p = 0.126). Similarly, logistic regression results were not statistically significant (χ² = 2.828, p = 0.587), although maize and sorghum sales showed a negative coefficient, suggesting a potential protective tendency. Overall, the findings suggest that while households engage in multiple income-generating activities, food security outcomes are influenced by broader structural factors such as production variability, climatic conditions, and resource constraints. The study highlights the need for integrated agricultural strategies that balance income generation with food availability at the household level.