Projected Impacts of Extreme Drought on Tilapia Aquaculture in Guangdong, China, Under SSP Scenarios: Climate-Yields Modeling Approach Using Loss Function

Global warming presents urgent challenges for tilapia aquaculture. This study introduces a tailored loss function to assess long-term impacts under extreme drought, using historical drought data in China as a baseline. The TaiESM1 climate model within the CMIP6 framework is applied to project future conditions under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, focusing on Guangdong Province (2024–2100). The results indicate a general decline in the frequency of extreme droughts across all scenarios. Under SSP245, technological advancements combined with reduced drought risk may boost yields of tilapia aquaculture of Guangdong to 2.369–2.418 million tons by 2100. In SSP370 and SSP585, while humidity increases, drought risk reduction is less pronounced, resulting in marginally lower yields (2.285–2.408 and 2.300–2.416 million tons, respectively). When a unified loss parameter is applied, projected yields exhibit a U-shaped trend across all SSP scenarios, reaching a minimum under SSP370 in the mid-century period before recovering toward the end of the century, driven by scenario-dependent marginal responses of production to changes in extreme drought risk, highlighting the nonlinearity of climate impacts driven by complex climatic factors and socioeconomic interactions. These findings are subject to uncertainties associated with the use of a single climate model and the simplified representation of drought impacts in the loss-function framework.