Emergence of statistical financial factors by a diffusion process

Factor models provide a representation of the joint behavior of large cross sections of financial assets through a reduced set of underlying drivers. In this work, we propose a network-based dynamical framework in which statistical factors emerge endogenously from interactions among assets, rather than being imposed exogenously or extracted purely statistically. We model asset returns as a system of coupled nonlinear maps influenced by a network of interactions encoded in a coupling matrix. This matrix is constructed via an orthogonal transformation of a Laplacian operator with prescribed nullity, allowing us to control the system’s effective dimensionality. Under appropriate coupling conditions, the dynamics reduce from a high-dimensional phase space to a lower-dimensional invariant manifold, where synchronization modes of co-movement arise. We show that the number of emergent statistical factors is directly related to the nullity of the coupling matrix, consistent with a stability analysis performed here. Simulations demonstrate that the model reproduces key stylized features of financial returns while generating factors with balanced loadings across assets. Finally, we show that this model reproduces features that are observed in an empirical portfolio. These findings suggest that statistical factors can be interpreted as emergent synchronization modes of an interacting nonlinear system, providing a complementary perspective to the existing economic and statistical factor models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
Published
2026-09-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0338836
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
article
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article

Emergence of statistical financial factors by a diffusion process

Jose negrete, Jaime Joel Ramos
Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
article

Emergence of statistical financial factors by a diffusion process

Jose negrete, Jaime Joel Ramos
article en

Abstract

Factor models provide a representation of the joint behavior of large cross sections of financial assets through a reduced set of underlying drivers. In this work, we propose a network-based dynamical framework in which statistical factors emerge endogenously from interactions among assets, rather than being imposed exogenously or extracted purely statistically. We model asset returns as a system of coupled nonlinear maps influenced by a network of interactions encoded in a coupling matrix. This matrix is constructed via an orthogonal transformation of a Laplacian operator with prescribed nullity, allowing us to control the system’s effective dimensionality. Under appropriate coupling conditions, the dynamics reduce from a high-dimensional phase space to a lower-dimensional invariant manifold, where synchronization modes of co-movement arise. We show that the number of emergent statistical factors is directly related to the nullity of the coupling matrix, consistent with a stability analysis performed here. Simulations demonstrate that the model reproduces key stylized features of financial returns while generating factors with balanced loadings across assets. Finally, we show that this model reproduces features that are observed in an empirical portfolio. These findings suggest that statistical factors can be interpreted as emergent synchronization modes of an interacting nonlinear system, providing a complementary perspective to the existing economic and statistical factor models.

Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear ScienceVol. 36(9)
Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez (MX), University of North Texas at Dallas (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 61%
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
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