An integrated assessment of climate change on landscape adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and divergence in Avicennia species

Climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity and is accelerating the risk of extinction for rare and ecologically important plant species. To mitigate these impacts, it is essential to understand the adaptive capacity, genetic structure, sensitivity, and connectivity of target species, which form the basis for effective conservation planning. Mangroves represent critical coastal ecosystems that provide invaluable ecological services such as shoreline stabilization, nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity maintenance. Within this group, the genus Avicennia particularly Avicennia marina is among the most widely distributed mangroves, extending across tropical and subtropical coasts from the Indo-Pacific to the Atlantic. Despite their ecological significance, Avicennia populations are increasingly threatened by climate change, sea-level rise, habitat degradation,and anthropogenic pressures. These drivers are expected to alter genetic structure,reduce adaptive capacity, and undermine long-term resilience, potentially leading to local extinctions or range shifts.In this study, we conducted an integrated assessment of Avicennia species, with a focus on geographically distinct populations of A. marina in Iran. Using a comprehensive framework that combined genetic, functional, ecological, and climatic variables, we evaluated landscape adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and divergence across populations. Our analyses identified genetic corridors, patterns of local adaptation, and the relationships between genetic diversity and connectivity networks. Furthermore, we detected highly divergent and at-risk populations that warrant urgent conservation attention. Collectively, these findings provide a robust basis for assessing vulnerability within the genus Avicennia and offer valuable insights for prioritizing conservation strategies under ongoing climate change.