The instability of migrants’ settlement intentions: A longitudinal study

Instability is a key feature of migrants’ settlement intentions and behaviors for the institutional, social, and psychological barriers they face in destinations. In the recently heated discussion on their settlement intention, however, most existing studies have treated it as a constant, with little attention paid to its process of change. This discrepancy may reflect the underlying conceptual neglect, partially attributed to data availability. To address the gaps, this study, based on the only nationwide official tracking survey data available in China, seeks to propose and establish a longitudinal analytical framework for the changes in migrants’ settlement intentions. The results show that changes in migrants’ settlement intentions do occur over a one-year interval. Basic forms of security in the destination cities play a crucial role in fostering the development of long-term settlement intentions. Building on these foundations, deeper economic and social integration in the destination, together with weaker ties to the place of origin, are essential for promoting permanent settlement intentions. In contrast, deeper economic and social integration in the destination is the key factor in stabilizing existing long-term or permanent intentions. These findings not only enrich the understanding of the instability of migrants’ settlement and their processes of migration adaptation in destination cities but also offer important policy implications for urban managers seeking to better safeguard the interests of migrants as a vulnerable group.