Distribution of the baraúna tree is threatened by climate change, land-cover change, and biological invasions in the Brazilian Caatinga

Abstract Multiple drivers shape biodiversity loss worldwide. Land-use change and biological invasions are major direct pressures on species, while climate change increasingly alters species distributions and community dynamics, often intensifying other stressors. However, these factors are still insufficiently integrated into Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) studies. We quantified the potentially suitable area for Schinopsis brasiliensis Engl., a tree species of high ecological importance in the Caatinga domain, considering the combined effects of climate change, land-cover change (LCC), and invasion by the exotic species Neltuma juliflora (Sw.) Raf. (hereafter, Neltuma spp.), known to reduce native plant abundance. We modeled the potential distributions of S. brasiliensis and Neltuma spp. under current and future scenarios using ENMs. Simulations of LCC were used to quantify anthropization within suitable areas for S. brasiliensis , and species models were combined to identify spatial overlap. Currently, S. brasiliensis occupies approximately 702,176 km² of suitable area, with projections indicating a reduction to 467,927 km² by 2081–2100. When LCC is incorporated, projected losses exceed 28% in most scenarios. Overlap with Neltuma spp. was total across all projections. Our results indicate that S. brasiliensis may undergo substantial contractions of climatic suitable areas in the Caatinga by the end of the century due to LCC. In overlapping areas, Neltuma spp. may act as an additional pressure, limiting or preventing the persistence of S. brasiliensis . This study highlights climatically suitable areas with lower future anthropization risk and underscores the importance of managing Neltuma spp. to conserve key native species in the Caatinga.