Counterfactuals: truth, probability and acceptance conditions

This paper aims at an integrated account of truth, probability and acceptance conditions of counterfactuals. The basic idea is that truth conditions are an abstract semantic device: they are not directly tested against semantic judgments, but determine the probability of a sentence, and via probabilistic acceptance conditions, they generate predictions of semantic judgments. The proposed account has two notable features: first, the probability of counterfactuals can be understood in a purely subjective sense, without reference to objective chance, and second, Lewis-style truth conditions for counterfactuals that quantify over multiple scenarios can be interpreted as describing their acceptance conditions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Synthese
Published
2026-04-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-026-05529-6
Primary Topic
Philosophy and Theoretical Science
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Counterfactuals: truth, probability and acceptance conditions

Jan Sprenger
Synthese
Philosophy and Theoretical Science
article

Counterfactuals: truth, probability and acceptance conditions

Jan Sprenger
article en

Abstract

This paper aims at an integrated account of truth, probability and acceptance conditions of counterfactuals. The basic idea is that truth conditions are an abstract semantic device: they are not directly tested against semantic judgments, but determine the probability of a sentence, and via probabilistic acceptance conditions, they generate predictions of semantic judgments. The proposed account has two notable features: first, the probability of counterfactuals can be understood in a purely subjective sense, without reference to objective chance, and second, Lewis-style truth conditions for counterfactuals that quantify over multiple scenarios can be interpreted as describing their acceptance conditions.

SyntheseVol. 207(4)
University of Turin (IT)
Università degli Studi di Torino
Reduced inequalities
Openalex Percentile: Top 15%
Philosophy and Theoretical Science
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Counterfactuals: truth, probability and acceptance conditions — Jan Sprenger · Synthese (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS