Using ArcGIS and GeoDetector to evaluate the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving causes of Guangdong’s traditional villages

This study examines 292 Chinese traditional villages in Guangdong, employing GIS and GeoDetector to reveal their spatial differentiation characteristics and formation mechanisms. Results indicate a polycentric pattern comprising a high-density core, secondary high-density zones, and low-density scattered settlements. Socio-economic factors demonstrate greater explanatory power than natural factors overall, with road network density and population density exhibiting distinct non-linear optimal ranges. Interaction analysis indicates that temperature ∩ river distance (q = 0.957) holds the greatest explanatory power, reflecting composite baseline constraints of climate and water resources within Lingnan’s humid-warm environment. Based on this, a layered evolutionary logic is proposed: natural foundation, green space innovation, road network intervention, and actor network restructuring. This translates statistical interaction outcomes into spatial and institutional mechanisms. Further differentiated governance pathways are proposed: core zones should advance cultural-ecological value conversion and multi-stakeholder collaborative governance; secondary zones should implement threshold-based low-carbon resilient development; low-density scattered settlements should prioritise biodiversity-risk-based precision conservation and differentiated compensation. This research theoretically transcends the nature-society dichotomy, methodologically deepens the mechanism interpretation of geographic detectors, and practically provides operational guidance for data-driven zoning governance of traditional villages.