Solar Heating of the Arctic Ocean Driven by Changes to Sea Ice Albedo

Abstract The sea ice albedo feedback is the process by which Arctic warming causes sea ice retreat, which due to the reduction in surface albedo leads to further Arctic warming through increased solar absorption. This definition, however, neglects important associated changes in cloud cover that can mitigate this effect, as well as covariant changes in the albedo of ice‐covered regions. Here we investigate a decomposition of the solar forcing of the Arctic Ocean into ice‐edge, ice‐albedo, and solar forcing related effects. We find that changes to solar heating of the Arctic Ocean are projected to be equally driven by changes to sea ice albedo as they are by the decline of sea ice extent. We show that changes to the parameterization of sea ice surface process and Arctic clouds contribute more to uncertainty in projections of the albedo feedback response than uncertainty in sea ice area loss.