Exploring the Complex Interplay of Demographic and Socioeconomic Dynamics in Urban Shrinkage of Latvian Mono-Towns

Urban shrinkage, driven by demographic and socioeconomic changes, has become a pressing issue across Europe, particularly in small peripheral towns and semi-urban settlements that have historically relied on a single industry or company. This study investigates the demographic and socioeconomic factors contributing to the multi-dimensional decline, encompassing population loss, economic contraction, and deteriorating socioeconomic conditions in Latvian mono-towns, thereby filling a void in empirical research on urban development in post-socialist contexts. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to a set of key demographic and socioeconomic indicators derived from census and administrative data to identify the principal dimensions that drive urban shrinkage. The analysis reveals three principal components explaining 87% of the variance: socioeconomic vitality (57.1%), population change and peripherality (17.2%), and aging society dynamics (12.6%). The results contribute to a nuanced understanding of how mono-functional urban contexts shape the intensity and character of shrinkage. These results establish a basis for specific policy measures designed to promote resilience in small-settlement settings and contribute to the understanding of spatial planning and regional development approaches in the post-socialist urban transition context. This research underscores the need for context-specific approaches to address the multifaceted challenges of urban shrinkage.