Can the Digital Economy Enable Sustainable Low-Carbon Development of Grain Production? Mechanism Identification and Testing Based on Green Finance

As a vital engine of economic growth, the digital economy can boost agricultural productivity while curbing carbon emissions from grain production, thereby facilitating the green transformation of traditional agriculture and the sustainable development of grain production systems. It serves as a pivotal anchor for achieving China’s dual-carbon strategic goals in the agricultural sector and supporting the long-term sustainability of national grain security. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the carbon emission mitigation mechanisms of the digital economy for sustainable agricultural production. Using panel data covering 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2012 to 2021, this study employs and integrates panel regression estimation, mediating effect analysis, and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) framework to identify the underlying pathways through which the digital economy affects carbon emissions from grain production and drives low-carbon sustainable transformation of agriculture. The findings reveal the following: (1) The digital economy exerts a significant negative effect on carbon emission intensity in grain production, laying an empirical foundation for digital-enabled sustainable grain production; (2) It indirectly reduces carbon emission intensity by promoting the development of green finance as a mediating channel, unlocking the sustainable empowerment mechanism of green finance for agricultural low-carbon transition; (3) The development of the digital economy presents pronounced spatial spillover effects: improved digital development in one region also lowers grain production carbon emission intensity in neighboring areas, supporting cross-regional coordinated sustainable development of grain production; (4) The carbon-reduction effects of the digital economy exhibit regional heterogeneity, with more significant emission-reduction outcomes observed in eastern and central regions, while such effects are less prominent in western regions, providing a basis for formulating differentiated regional agricultural sustainable development policies. Based on these findings, this paper puts forward a series of targeted policy recommendations, offering theoretical and practical references for the high-quality development of green and low-carbon agriculture and the overall advancement of sustainable agricultural and rural modernization.