Seasonal forecasting of dissolved organic carbon in a Mediterranean catchment: Enhancing upstream control of disinfection by-product precursors

Increasing climatic aridity and growing anthropogenic pressures are expected to alter dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics in Mediterranean river basins, with implications for environmental monitoring and drinking water source management. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), a bulk indicator of DOM and an operational surrogate for disinfection by-products (DBP) precursors, is routinely monitored at drinking water sources but remains difficult to anticipate on seasonal timescales. Here, we present a reproducible open-source workflow that extends conventional monitoring by integrating seasonal climate forecasts (SEAS5) with coupled hydrological and catchment carbon models to generate probabilistic monthly predictions of streamflow and DOC at the inflow of a Mediterranean drinking water reservoir. Seasonal hindcast evaluation using the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) showed limited skill for meteorological variables beyond 1 month, while streamflow exhibited positive skill at short lead times across most seasons. Notably, DOC forecasts achieved the highest and most persistent skill, with CRPSS values exceeding 0.3 for winter initializations and lead times up to 4 months, consistent with catchment system memory. Forecast experiments successfully distinguished contrasting wet and dry hydroclimatic conditions, reproducing higher and more persistent DOC concentrations during the dry period. To support operational use, the forecasts were translated into a co-developed monthly report to provide early warning of periods with elevated organic matter levels in source waters. While DOC alone does not capture the full complexity of DBP formation, the workflow provides a transferable approach for seasonal assessment of source water organic matter dynamics in hydroclimatically variable, human-impacted catchments.