Spatiotemporal Variations in Population Exposure to Earthquake Disaster in Hubei Province Under Future SSP Scenarios

This study develops a framework to capture spatiotemporal population dynamics and assess future earthquake exposure risk, using Hubei Province as a case study. Future population changes at the county level were projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). These projections were then integrated with NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of the population from 2020 to 2070 at a 500 m grid resolution. Combined with seismic hazard zoning, the evolution of population exposure risk under different pathways was assessed. The results indicate the following: 1. Different SSPs profoundly influence future population exposure patterns. Under the SSP3 (regional rivalry) pathway, population growth is the fastest with the strongest agglomeration effect and significantly elevated exposure levels. 2. The refined spatiotemporal population model can more realistically reveal the heterogeneity and evolutionary trajectory of population distribution, providing a high-precision data foundation for exposure analysis and effectively enhancing the scientific rigor of risk assessment. 3. Population exposure risk under various pathways exhibits distinct spatiotemporal dynamics, and monitoring its evolution under different scenarios helps identify high-risk counties that require priority attention. This study is expected to provide precise scientific evidence for implementing differentiated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and territorial spatial resilience planning in Hubei Province, while it demonstrates the forward-looking value of combining long-term scenario simulations with refined exposure assessments.