Burden of 33 malignant tumor groups in 5 socio-demographic index areas and 21 regions from 1990 to 2041

ObjectiveCancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are increasingly recognized as a global development challenge. The most recent UN high-level meeting on NCDs underscored insufficient progress toward the Political Declaration on NCDs. Key barriers-including gaps in situational analysis, priority setting, and budgeting-all hinge on localized cancer epidemiology data. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely positioned to provide this essential information.MethodsThis study estimated global malignant tumor burden and trends across 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) areas and 21 regions from 1990-2021 and projected trends to 2041 using GBD 2021 data for 33 tumor groups.ResultsIn 2021, there were 23.4 million (95% UI: 22.3-23.6 million) new cases, 9.8 million (9.1-10.5 million) deaths, and 251 million (235-268 million) DALYs attributable to malignant tumors, ranking them third globally for DALYs after respiratory infections and tuberculosis. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause of cancer mortality in both genders combined (15/21 regions) and in males (14/21 regions), while breast cancer led female mortality (12/21 regions). In high-SDI areas, malignant tumors ranked first for DALYs. TBL, colon and rectum cancer (CRC), and breast cancer comprised the top three DALY causes for both genders combined and for females; for high-SDI males, the top three were TBL, CRC, and pancreatic cancer. Projections to 2041 (Bayesian age-period-cohort [BAPC] model) indicated decreasing age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and case numbers for stomach and esophageal cancers. Conversely, rising ASIR and incidence numbers were projected for CRC, breast cancer, prostate cancer, lip/oral cavity cancer, multiple myeloma, thyroid cancer, and testicular cancer.ConclusionsThe cancer burden profile is strongly influenced by SDI level and gender, with high-SDI regions characterized by TBL and CRC, while lower-SDI regions face a higher burden from gender-specific and infection-related cancers. TBL cancer remains the dominant driver of cancer mortality worldwide, particularly among males. Breast cancer shows remarkable consistency as the leading female-specific cancer across most regions by both incidence and mortality.