Transformation of River Runoff and Sensitivity of Hydrological Systems in the Arid Zone of Kazakhstan in the Context of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

This study investigates the transformation of river runoff and its sensitivity to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Zhaiyk–Caspian water management basin during the period of 1951–2023. The analysis is based on hydrometeorological observations data, the Vangengeim–Girs classification of macro-circulation patterns, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Correlation analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and the Pettitt test were applied to identify trends, structural shifts, and the spatial coherence of hydroclimatic changes. The results show that interannual variability in river runoff is characterized by a degree of spatial coherence, with correlation coefficients between annual streamflow records at most gauging stations reaching up to 0.95. It is demonstrated that the most pronounced changes in the hydrological regime occur during the cold season and are expressed in a statistically significant increase in winter runoff, while no significant long-term trend in annual runoff is observed. Structural shifts in winter runoff are predominantly associated with the late 1990s, whereas changes in the temperature regime are detected earlier and exhibit spatial coherence. The findings indicate that the contemporary transformation of river runoff is primarily driven by rising air temperatures and the associated intra-annual redistribution of flow.