Emotional resilience and affective forecasting bias in junior high school students: the moderating role of negative coping

Individuals' affective forecasts often systematically differ from their actual affective experiences, a phenomenon formally termed affective forecasting bias. This bias may compound academic stress and undermine long-term psychological adjustment, necessitating heightened attention. In Study 1, we examined 248 ninth-grade students in a real examination scenario in 2025 to validate the existence of affective forecasting bias. In Study 2, participants from Study 1 were selected based on the top and bottom 27% of emotional resilience scores, while their negative coping styles were simultaneously measured to investigate the impact of emotional resilience on affective forecasting bias and the moderating role of negative coping styles. Junior high school students demonstrated significant affective forecasting bias. Emotional resilience significantly influenced affective forecasting bias, with individuals exhibiting higher emotional resilience showing smaller affective forecasting bias. Negative coping styles negatively moderated the effect of emotional resilience on affective forecasting bias. Junior high school students exhibit affective forecasting bias, which is influenced by emotional resilience, and this influence is moderated by negative coping styles.