MODELING FOR INSIGHTS: AN ASSESSMENT OF CLEAN AND AFFORDABLE ENERGY CHOICES AMONG FARMING HOUSEHOLDS IN NORTHEAST, NIGERIA

Background: Energy poverty remains pervasive among farming households in Northeast Nigeria, exacerbated by conflict, climate variability, and limited grid infrastructure. Despite abundant solar potential, adoption of clean energy solutions remains suboptimal. Objective: This study identifies the determinants of clean energy adoption choices among farming households and quantifies the trade-offs between affordability, reliability, and accessibility. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 387 farming households across Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe States was conducted. Multinomial logit regression was employed to model energy choice determinants, supplemented by descriptive analysis and thematic insights from focus group discussions. Results: Three distinct energy choice profiles emerged: (1) traditional biomass dependent (42.1%), (2) transitional LPG/solar adopters (35.4%), and (3) clean energy committed (22.5%). Income (OR=1.84, p<0.01), education (OR=2.15, p<0.001), farm size (OR=1.32, p<0.05), and conflict exposure (OR=0.67, p<0.05) significantly influenced adoption. Affordability constraints were cited by 68% of non-adopters. Conclusion: Clean energy transition requires targeted subsidies, pay-as-you-go financing, and conflict-sensitive deployment strategies. Policy should prioritize the "transitional" group as the most viable pathway to universal clean energy access.