When Predictive Signals Fail: Why Some Time-Series Data Cannot Support Prediction

In this work, we show that predictive feasibility depends on three observable properties of the signal: the presence of structural behavior the consistency of that structure across observations and the predictability of the signal itself Across widely used benchmark datasets (IMS, C-MAPSS) and independent vibration data, we show that signals can be: predictable but not informative structurally active but inconsistent or consistent and suitable for prediction These cases reveal two fundamental failure modes: inconsistent structure, where patterns do not generalize non-informative signals, where prediction is possible but meaningless This leads to a key conclusion: Predictability is not equivalent to predictive usefulness. The results suggest that the primary limitation in predictive systems is not the model, but the signal itself.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-04-14
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19581467
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

When Predictive Signals Fail: Why Some Time-Series Data Cannot Support Prediction

Jos Aben
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
article

When Predictive Signals Fail: Why Some Time-Series Data Cannot Support Prediction

Jos Aben
article en

Abstract

In this work, we show that predictive feasibility depends on three observable properties of the signal: the presence of structural behavior the consistency of that structure across observations and the predictability of the signal itself Across widely used benchmark datasets (IMS, C-MAPSS) and independent vibration data, we show that signals can be: predictable but not informative structurally active but inconsistent or consistent and suitable for prediction These cases reveal two fundamental failure modes: inconsistent structure, where patterns do not generalize non-informative signals, where prediction is possible but meaningless This leads to a key conclusion: Predictability is not equivalent to predictive usefulness. The results suggest that the primary limitation in predictive systems is not the model, but the signal itself.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Tatar American Regional Institute (RU)
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
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