Deep Learning-Based Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting and Installation Potential Assessment

Against the backdrop of the global energy structure accelerating its transition towards a clean and low-carbon model, rooftop-distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems are playing an increasingly prominent strategic role in urban energy supply systems, owing to their notable advantages such as environmental friendliness and high spatial utilization efficiency. Consequently, they are becoming a critical pillar in advancing urban energy transformation and enhancing sustainable development. This paper aims to explore deep learning-based techniques for assessing the potential of large-scale distributed PV installations. To accurately evaluate their dynamic power generation capability, a hybrid prediction model integrating variational mode decomposition (VMD), the mutual information (MI) method, and a cascaded xLSTM-Informer network is proposed. Firstly, the model preprocesses key meteorological sequences using VMD, decomposing them into modal components of different frequencies. Subsequently, the MI method is employed to extract critical sequences. Then, the xLSTM module is utilized to learn the long-term complex dependencies between meteorological conditions and PV power output, while the Informer network captures key global temporal patterns, achieving high-precision time-series forecasting of PV generation. Finally, employing the forecasted time-series power curve as the core input, a comprehensive analytical framework for PV installation potential is constructed, integrating assessments of technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental performance. This framework aims to scientifically estimate the admissible installed capacity and system value of distributed PV systems, thereby providing a dynamic basis for decision-making in urban planning.