Emission Reduction Strategies for Cement Production in Mexico: A Scenario Analysis

As the world faces the challenge of mitigating climate change, energy- and emissions-intensive industrial processes must be addressed urgently worldwide. The cement production industry accounts for over 8% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from calcination and fuel use. Mexico, a middle-income economy, has rising cement demand for infrastructure and commercial growth. Thus, this study analysed national cement production, the primary emitting manufacturing industry in the country, under a business-as-usual (BAU) and two alternative scenarios, using a top-down approach to model energy consumption and GHG emissions by 2050. These scenarios follow the projection of national cement production, estimated using socio-economic indicators, which are considered the main drivers of cement demand, reaching 97.3 Mt. A qualitative analysis evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of implementing emission-reduction strategies. The analysis showed that the BAU scenario might reach 66.5 Mt CO2e by 2050, while the most ambitious scenario reduced direct emissions by 80.1% through carbon capture, clinker-to-cement reduction, thermal energy intensity reduction, and the use of municipal solid waste as an alternative fuel. However, incorporating these strategies in Mexico requires a more active role and investment support from key stakeholders.