Evaluation of Land Use Patterns and Vegetation Recovery Status of Shifting Cultivation in Myanmar’s Mountainous Regions Using Satellite Imagery and Field Surveys

Shifting cultivation remains a primary farming system in Myanmar’s mountainous regions. However, population growth and economic pressures have disrupted its traditional balance. This study aimed to clarify historical land-use patterns and evaluate vegetation recovery in Lailenpi by integrating field surveys with multitemporal Sentinel-2 imagery from 2019 to 2025. We identified cultivation plots using NDVI differences and quantified recovery trajectories with a Bayesian hierarchical nonlinear model. Results confirmed that a systematic eight-year rotational cycle was maintained. However, the total cultivated area expanded from 0.93% to 3.13%, shifting toward steeper terrain. Bayesian modeling showed that canopy greenness recovered within 24 to 36 months. Despite this resilience, the shift to rugged terrain suggested mounting land-use pressure and soil degradation risks. These findings highlight the importance of combining field surveys with high-resolution monitoring to ensure the long-term ecological sustainability of tropical mountain regions.