Economic and Social Determinants of Biogas Production Processes in Europe

The European Union aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with biogas and biomethane expected to play an increasingly important role in the decarbonisation of the energy system. This study investigates the economic and social determinants shaping the development of biogas production in European countries and identifies an optimal investment strategy for new biogas plants under varying environmental conditions. An expert–mathematical method was applied to assess and hierarchise twenty economic and social factors influencing biogas production, based on evaluations provided by 71 experts from eleven European countries. Subsequently, individual choice criteria derived from game theory were used to determine the optimal strategy for biogas plant construction under conditions of uncertainty. The results indicate that six determinants—EU-level production support mechanisms, investment costs, national support instruments, process efficiency improvements, community involvement, and agricultural raw material prices—account for 52.9% of the total impact on biogas development potential. Among the analysed investment options, large-scale biogas plants with an installed capacity of 3 MW were identified as the optimal strategy, offering the lowest unit production costs and the lowest risk of cost overruns across diverse economic and social environments. These findings provide policy-relevant insights for supporting efficient and socially acceptable biogas deployment in Europe.