Painful reforms, punished incumbents: the politics of economic adjustment

We investigate the political fallout from economic reform programs and whether incumbent governments can soften the impact using social protection or scapegoating strategies. We test our arguments through a survey experiment in Pakistan and an analysis of World Values Surveys. The Pakistani experiment confirms that emphasizing the negative consequences of reform lowers incumbent support, while attempts to mitigate this backlash are ineffective. The cross-country data show that populations enduring harsher reform programs report lower satisfaction with national leaders. These findings inform economic voting theories in developing countries and policies regarding political backlash from IMF-backed adjustments.