Modeling Zoonotic and Human Transmission of Mpox: Stability, Bifurcation, and Control Insights

Monkeypox (Mpox), caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), has re-emerged as a significant global public health concern, particularly following the 2022 outbreaks. Understanding its transmission dynamics is essential for designing effective control strategies. In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic compartmental model that captures both human-to-human and rodent-to-human transmission pathways in order to better reflect the zoonotic nature of the disease. The model is investigated using qualitative and quantitative analytical techniques, including stability analysis, bifurcation theory, and sensitivity analysis. The basic reproduction number, R0, is derived and used to determine threshold conditions for disease persistence or eradication. We show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, while an endemic equilibrium exists and is stable when R0>1. Furthermore, the model exhibits backward bifurcation, indicating that reducing R0 below unity may not be sufficient for disease elimination. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters driving transmission, particularly the rodent-to-human and human-to-human contact rates. Numerical simulations further demonstrate that reducing cross-species transmission and improving isolation of infected individuals significantly decrease disease burden. These findings highlight the complexity of Mpox transmission and emphasize that effective control requires not only lowering R0, but also targeting critical transmission pathways. This study provides useful insights for public health planning by identifying priority intervention strategies such as minimizing rodent–human interactions and strengthening isolation measures.