Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Expansion and Its Impact on Agricultural Land in the Casablanca Metropolitan Periphery

Casablanca, Morocco’s most populous and economically dynamic metropolis, is undergoing rapid and unregulated expansion, leading to accelerated agricultural land artificialization, landscape fragmentation, and growing socio-environmental vulnerability in peri-urban territories. This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of urban expansion within a 40 km buffer around the city, using multi-temporal Landsat imagery (2015–2025), a GIS-based framework, and supervised classification. Four land-cover classes were extracted (urban, vegetation, forest and water) enabling a diachronic comparison of land transformation processes. Two spatial indicators were mobilized to quantify urban dynamics: the Average Urban Expansion Rate (AUER) and the Urban Expansion Intensity Index (UEII). Results reveal that urban areas expanded by up to 387.9% in some communes, with 15 exceeding an AUER of 25% and 17 falling within the “very high development” category based on UEII thresholds. Land artificialization was most intense along southern and southeastern peripheries, notably Deroua, Tit Mellil, Had Soualem, and Sidi Moussa Ben Ali, resulting in severe fragmentation of agricultural land. The classification of communes into four profiles (fast, slow, consolidated, and stable) highlights varying degrees of territorial vulnerability. By integrating demographic trends (2014–2024), the study exposes mismatches between population growth and land consumption, underscoring the urgent need for integrated spatial diagnostics and governance reforms toward sustainable peri-urban land management.