Does urbanization quality cultivate productive forces in pastoral grasslands? Evidence from Inner Mongolia

Pastoral regions in ecologically fragile zones face a distinct urbanization trajectory that differs markedly from conventional urban settings, yet their capacity to generate new quality productive forces (NQ) under ecological constraints remains poorly understood. This study focuses on 54 county-level units in Inner Mongolia’s pastoral areas and develops a multidimensional new-type urbanization (NU) evaluation framework encompassing population and cultural development, infrastructure, public services, ecological civilization, economic environment, and science and education. Drawing on panel regression models, system dynamics simulations, and machine learning algorithms, the study examines how NU shapes NQ across pastoral and semi-agricultural-semi-pastoral areas from 2014 to 2023. Results indicate that NU exerts a significant positive effect on NQ, with investment and consumption serving as the core mediating pathways, particularly pronounced in purely pastoral areas and Western Inner Mongolia. System dynamics simulations reveal that coordinated development strategies and population-culture-oriented pathways yield superior long-term NQ outcomes compared to single-dimension interventions. XGBoost combined with SHAP analysis identifies traditional village conservation, the presence of large-scale industrial enterprises, and green coverage rate of built-up areas as the most influential determinants. These findings highlight that sustainable productivity growth in pastoral urban systems requires a people-centered, ecologically bounded development paradigm that fosters a virtuous cycle between consumption expansion, technological innovation and efficient investment, offering evidence-based guidance for urban planning and ecological governance in grassland-dominated regions.