Temporal and situational analysis of 7-m shots in elite handball: a multi-season study

The 7-m shot is a critical scoring opportunity in elite handball, significantly impacting match outcomes. Despite existing research on performance metrics and tactical elements, a gap remains in understanding how game timing and situational context influence 7-m shot outcomes. This study addresses this by analyzing 7-m shots across different game phases, under pressure conditions, and considering temporal and contextual factors. Utilizing play-by-play data from 2,978 matches in the Danish Handball top-tier Men's and Women's leagues (2017-2024 seasons), the study examined 38,480 penalty-related events. Temporal analysis allocated "penalty awarded" events to 5-min intervals, and success rates were calculated for various scenarios. Close matches were defined by a ≤ 2-goal difference at regulation time, and "clutch moments" were the final 5 min of play. Results indicate a consistent temporal pattern, with penalty occurrences typically peaking in the central phases of each half. Overall success rates for 7-m shots remained stable across seasons and genders, ranging from 73.4% to 78.1% in women's and 75.6% to 77.7% in men's competitions. No statistically significant difference was found in success rates between men's and women's leagues. Performance in the final 5 min showed divergent gender patterns: women equalled or exceeded their whole-match baseline in five of seven seasons (average: +2.7 pp), while men more frequently recorded negative differences (average: -1.4 pp), with the notable exception of 2023-24 (+6.9 pp). Goalkeeper saves accounted for 74.6% of all unsuccessful penalties across both groups, with higher rates in men's leagues (78.9%) than women's leagues (70.9%). These findings suggest that elite handball players can maintain stable execution of 7-m shots despite situational pressure, supporting the role of effective psychological self-regulation in high-stakes performance. Integrating psychological skills training, such as attentional focus strategies and stress regulation, alongside technical preparation may enhance penalty-shot training and match preparation.