Russian Dairy Industry: Growth Drivers and Constraints in 1990–2025

The article traces the history of the dairy industry in the Russian Federation from 1990 to 2025 as a strategic area of the agro‑industrial complex. The authors analyzed the key drivers and institutional constraints that shaped the industry’s trajectory. The methodological framework relied on the principles of historical‑economic analysis, the theory of institutional change, and the structural‑functional approach. The empirical basis included official statistics (Rosstat, Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation), regulatory legal acts, strategic documents, and industry reports. The research revealed four stages: 1. Systemic disintegration (1990–2000); 2. Post‑crisis stabilization and accumulation of imbalances (2000–2010); 3. Import‑substituting modernization and new dependencies (2011–2020); 4. Adaptation to sanctions and the search for an independent growth model (2021–2025). While addressing the pressing issues of the previous period, each stage generated new, even more complex challenges. For instance, the response to the 1990s crisis through state support in the 2000s helped to stabilize the industry but preserved the inefficient system of private subsidiary plots. The investment boom of the 2010s, catalyzed by the embargo, delivered a technological leap but resulted in critical import dependence in the fields of genetics and high technologies. Currently, the industry is trying to overcome this dependence under external pressure, accompanied by hyperinflation, structural imbalances, underqualified personnel, and competition from the market of plant-based alternatives. The target indicators of the Development Strategy for Agriculture and Fisheries through 2030 can be achieved not simply through financial support, but rather through closed technological chains, breakthroughs in domestic breeding, and training qualified personnel.