Governance Failures and Agricultural Water Scarcity in the Mediterranean Basin: Case of the Safsaf Irrigated Perimeter from 1992 to 2018 (Skikda, North-Eastern Algeria)

The present study contributes to the understanding of agricultural water stress in the southern Mediterranean basin. Despite the effectiveness of dynamic multivariate analysis using principal component analysis (PCA) for identifying the potential causes of agricultural water scarcity, its application in this context has received limited attention in the existing literature. By applying this methodology to the Safsaf irrigated perimeter (North-Eastern Algeria) from 1992 to 2018, our research aims to investigate the causes driving irrigation deficits, which are typically attributed to climatic constraints. The results reveal a strong association between institutional failures and agricultural water scarcity, where institutional governance factors (52.33%) and management dysfunctions (24.38%) together explain approximately 76% of the observed irrigation deficits. This study demonstrates the value of dynamic multivariate analysis as a powerful tool for deconstructing the multidimensional temporal aspects of this composite issue. The challenge is not merely in implementing solutions that address physical water scarcity in agriculture, but in diagnosing its systemic accumulated root causes in order to achieve sustainable management and develop comprehensive, effective strategies.