SCADA-Based Stator-Winding Prognostics: A Temperature-Weighted Work Index for Industrial Motor Health Monitoring

Industrial predictive maintenance programs often rely on SCADA historian signals characterized by low-frequency sampling and asynchronous reporting intervals. These data constraints, specifically non-uniform scan rates and inter-tag time misalignment, limit the applicability of high-resolution or sensor-intensive prognostic models. This study proposes a lightweight, physics-informed health proxy, the temperature-weighted work (TWW) index, designed to monitor motor stator-winding degradation within these industrial limitations. The TWW index accumulates mechanical work derived from torque and speed measurements, weighted by an adaptive exponential temperature-emphasis function that penalizes operation at elevated temperatures. The formulation is inspired by practical thermal-aging heuristics such as Montsinger’s rule in the qualitative sense that higher temperatures are treated as disproportionately more damaging, but it is not intended as a direct implementation of a fixed absolute-temperature life law. Instead, it is designed as a lightweight adaptive index suitable for online SCADA-based implementation. To address SCADA-specific irregularities, the framework incorporates data synchronization and resampling techniques to align heterogeneous tags, alongside power-thresholding to isolate degradation-relevant load periods. The resulting cumulative index is mapped to a normalized health/RUL proxy using failure-referenced thresholds identified from historical events. Validation using field data from industrial three-phase motors demonstrates that the TWW index provides a monotonic degradation profile that is consistent with documented winding-related failures and proactive removals. Case studies confirm that the model enabled proactive maintenance interventions by signaling the terminal phase of insulation life before catastrophic breakdown, offering a hardware-free and scalable solution for real-time asset management.