Geospatial green ammonia co-firing in China’s coal power fleets to avoid CO2 emissions lock-in

China's 600 gigawatts (GW) of post-2010 coal power capacity locks in over 2 gigatons (Gt) of annual CO₂ emissions. Green ammonia co-firing offers a viable decarbonization pathway, yet spatial mismatch between ammonia production hubs and coal power plants remains a barrier. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework covering 3958 islanded green ammonia production hubs to evaluate coal power units' spatial retrofit outcomes under two distinct co-firing strategies: local sourcing and geospatially optimized allocation. Results show that despite green ammonia subsidies, high fuel utilization costs persist for the local sourcing strategy, thereby limiting cumulative energy-related CO₂ reductions to 1.9-4.2 Gt (2020-2060) depending on climate policy stringency. In contrast, a geospatially optimized allocation strategy leveraging key transport corridors (e.g., Inner Mongolia to Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi) delivers cumulative CO₂ abatement of 7.8-15.2 Gt, cuts cumulative CO₂ capture demand by 1.6-6.8 Gt, and lowers cumulative system costs between 2020 and 2060, relative to the local sourcing strategy.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-04-13
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71625-3
Primary Topic
Ammonia Synthesis and Nitrogen Reduction
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Geospatial green ammonia co-firing in China’s coal power fleets to avoid CO2 emissions lock-in

Xiurong Hu, Yuhan Zhou, Wendong Ge, Huihuang Wu et al.
Nature Communications
Ammonia Synthesis and Nitrogen Reduction
article

Geospatial green ammonia co-firing in China’s coal power fleets to avoid CO2 emissions lock-in

Xiurong Hu, Yuhan Zhou, Wendong Ge, Huihuang Wu, Boyang Wu, Xiangyu Wang, Yi Liu, Junfeng Liu, S Tao, Yang Ren
article en

Abstract

China's 600 gigawatts (GW) of post-2010 coal power capacity locks in over 2 gigatons (Gt) of annual CO₂ emissions. Green ammonia co-firing offers a viable decarbonization pathway, yet spatial mismatch between ammonia production hubs and coal power plants remains a barrier. Here, we develop a spatially explicit framework covering 3958 islanded green ammonia production hubs to evaluate coal power units' spatial retrofit outcomes under two distinct co-firing strategies: local sourcing and geospatially optimized allocation. Results show that despite green ammonia subsidies, high fuel utilization costs persist for the local sourcing strategy, thereby limiting cumulative energy-related CO₂ reductions to 1.9-4.2 Gt (2020-2060) depending on climate policy stringency. In contrast, a geospatially optimized allocation strategy leveraging key transport corridors (e.g., Inner Mongolia to Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi) delivers cumulative CO₂ abatement of 7.8-15.2 Gt, cuts cumulative CO₂ capture demand by 1.6-6.8 Gt, and lowers cumulative system costs between 2020 and 2060, relative to the local sourcing strategy.

Nature Communications
University of International Business and Economics (CN), Peking University (CN), Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CN), Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 20%
Ammonia Synthesis and Nitrogen Reduction
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