Sentiment Overheating in Cultural Industries: A Technical Analysis Approach to VTuber Fandom Dynamics

This working paper proposes applying financial technical analysis concepts -- RSI, Bollinger Bands, and moving average divergence -- to sentiment analysis in cultural industries. Using the VTuber industry as a case study, the paper connects established theoretical frameworks including crowd psychology, parasocial interaction theory, social identity theory, framing theory, and the industrial lifecycle model. The central argument is that cultural industry sentiment is driven primarily by narratives and expectations rather than fundamentals, making a technical-analysis-style approach effective for reading overheating dynamics and anticipating adjustment phases. The paper also introduces the PPPM (Parasocial Proxy Punishment Mode) chain risk as the most critical adjustment scenario.