Digital Technological Innovation, Regional Innovation and Entrepreneurship, and Urban Shrinkage: The Moderating Role of Ecological Environmental Resilience

Urban shrinkage has become a critical constraint on China’s pursuit of high-quality economic development. As a core driver of new-quality productive forces, digital technological innovation warrants systematic examination for its role in mitigating urban shrinkage. Given the current lack of research on multidimensional measures of urban shrinkage and the mechanisms through which digital technologies influence this phenomenon, this study utilizes panel data from 269 prefecture-level and higher cities in China from 2014 to 2022. By employing two-way fixed-effects models, mediation models, and threshold regression models, the study systematically examines the impact, mechanisms, and nonlinear characteristics of digital technology innovation on urban shrinkage. The empirical results demonstrate that digital technological innovation has a significant mitigating effect on urban shrinkage; this conclusion holds even after conducting a series of robustness tests, including replacing the core explanatory variable, accounting for lag effects, using SYS-GMM estimation, and adjusting the sample range. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the mitigating effect is more pronounced in shrinking cities, peripheral cities, resource-based cities, and cities with lower educational attainment. Mechanism analysis reveals that agricultural-related innovation acts as a mediating channel, whereas rural entrepreneurship exhibits a “partial masking effect” in the relationship between digital technological innovation and urban shrinkage. Moderation analysis further shows that higher levels of ecological environmental resilience amplify the inhibitory effect of digital technological innovation. Finally, threshold regression results identify a significant double-threshold effect, with the mitigating impact of digital technological innovation emerging only after exceeding the first threshold value of 5.690. Based on these findings, this study recommends implementing differentiated digital-technology-driven innovation strategies, with agriculture-related innovation serving as a strategic entry point to stimulate regional innovation and entrepreneurial vitality. At the same time, strengthening ecological resilience should be promoted to support coordinated green and digital transformation. These findings provide empirical evidence for the formulation of differentiated urban digital transformation policies aimed at mitigating urban shrinkage.